Hey folks, longtime no post. At first a small overview on my stuff and then I am gonna talk a little about how I intend to optimize my game plan for the future. I didn’t play that much during the SCOOP and to be honest I didn’t really want to either. I scratched some cash together to play the 2k Stud Highroller Event and got runner runner runnered by a straight when I had sth. about 97% equity to win the hand on 4th in a huge pot. That would’ve been the much needed deep run close to final two tables. It was a really tough lineup with a lot of big names but the edge was still more than decent for such a high buy in. Getting it in with ~97% equity however is pretty much all I can do in the end. I didn’t play much of the NL HE Events except for the Sunday. The 6max events on the Sundays weren’t too bad mostly lost 60:40 type situations early itm. In the end I am happy not to have wasted more money on the series. It’s a really nice series of course but it can get so expensive and with a damaged bankroll playing to much of the M-Events just leads to bankroll suicide in the end. And that’s what MTT-Poker has been this whole year.
That’s basically why I started to grind out the Stud Cash Game tables from 1/2$ up to 3/6$. The action is decent and I can 6-table most of the time which is fine. I wouldn’t mind playing 8 tables but I’m doing okay and made more than 2.000$ last week. On lowstakes this is a very solid result. I also play a couple of Turbos and 180s. In the 180s I made a few Final Tables but mostly finished 2nd at best. No Heads Up luck atm but after burning a lot of money in 180s and MTTs lately it’s nice to finish most days with about 300$ profit. Still tough to see my short bankroll and comparing to the beginning of the year. But no worries. With hard work there is still a lot of money to be made on the low and midstakes and I can’t afford to be lazy anymore. Even with a nice bankroll again I am still going to play 1/2$. It’s ~5BB/100 so thats about 20$ an hour but on 3 tables it is around 50$ w/o the Rakeback which is probably 5 to 10$ as well. And that’s only 3tabling 1/2$ if there are 6 tables going I can still manage to make at least 80$ per hour in the long run and most of the time there are 2/4$ and 3/6$ at the same time. On the one hand I am happy that this is still possible right now on the other hand I wish the US-Players would still be there. When I check the Playmoney Tables for fun there are thousands of US-Stud Players and many of them would give me the action I would need to make a living just playing Stud. The next step is to get the roll for higher stakes again and take the action on 5/T+ if it shows up. In my earlier days I did the same but stopped after I was back on 10/20$. I rather played a Chinese Reg Heads Up than grinding in money on the lowstakes. I won’t make this mistake again for sure. Also I don’t want to complain about making 80$+ an hour. I mean 60€/h – most people would kill for such an hourly. The only thing I am worried about is that it doesn’t get worse from now on. Poker has suffered so much it’s gotta stop now.
I talked to many tournament players lately and the opinion is clear. The ones who run good feel fine of course but the ones who don’t are disgusted by the games and they are right. Except for the variance heavy sundays the higher stakes during the week are mostly dead money and not in a good way. You can be happy to find 1 bad player at your table. Mostly it’s like 6 regs, a semi reg-fish and a fish. So let’s say you play the 100$ (309$) cubed on a Wednesday with a 10% ROI (and I don’t think you can have much more on a field like this, maybe if you are very good it’s a little more but I think 10% is accurate for most players). So you make 30$ each time you play this tournament in the long run. Now the variance is so damn huge with just a 10% ROI that it’s unlikely to get close to your EV even if you play it every day of the year. This tournament takes sth. about 4-5 hours as I recall (I final tabled it several times and won it also). So you can say you make 30/4 which is a little more than 7$ an hour. Sure you play MTTs and can play 16-20 tables but you gotta risk 309$ to make a 7$ hourly at this table and with that 7$ you also take on a variance that may only evens out over several years. Same thing goes for several other MTTs. So in the end I think most of the tournaments even though they got beautiful structures on Stars are worthless during the week. Even lowstakes Cash Game grinders with a good game plan and table selection should make more money and also get more rakeback as well. Sundays are a different animal of course but as the fields get bigger your EV goes up and so does the variance. How many Sundays I dropped 8-10k last year I can’t really remember but it wasn’t unusual. Of course there are several tournaments that can be played with a much higher ROI than 10%. Mostly the HOTs and BIGs. They got qualifiers, huge gtd pools and at least the HOTs are over fast as well.
It wasn’t easy for me to understand why Cash Game players make more money even though MTTs are known to be the softest form of Poker but I think I found the answer for the most part. They make tons of rakeback, the can table select, they don’t have to play 10 hours every day in a row, they can play fewer tables, they don’t have mtt-swings and lose money for months and they can act according to BRM-Rules much better. I used to be pissed when Cash Game Highrollers with a huge roll take down tourneys but my plan is to become more like them. They make their money all the time and when a SCOOP or WSOP comes up their EV explodes and they have the roll to risk 10-20k for a series and maybe sell a piece or two. They don’t have been waiting the whole year for this and they don’t feel so devasteted if they don’t score and get killed deep by 2outer no. 500 this year in a deep run. After the last day they go back to their usual routine where the calculated hourly is much more certain than in MTTs. Of course I know many MTT-Players with very strong results and scores lots of them play much better than me, but most of them never come close to the Cash Game players out there. I always had the feeling I might have chosen the wrong way inside Poker. If I had ever won the Sunday Million instead of busting 12th I might talk differently today but in the end I am sure my new view is the right one. In the end there are cash gamers and heads up regs final tabling the SM all the time and thats because you win much more if you don’t really need it. You run and play better cause one favors the other. So I am going to make up for lost time on the Stud Tables and also get into other Cash Games as well. There is also this Black Friday downside that it fucked up Mixed Games so much but I still think it makes sense to get into more forms of Poker asap.
Two nights ago the Lakers lost the series vs OKC but Kobe was amazing in most games. So here are some highlights from the season:
(I know its in the other post but I am to lazy to check out why ;D )